<p>Fresh produce prices in the US may be poised for a significant increase as a result of the California drought.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">The Manteca Bulletin reported yesterday that seedless watermelon was selling for $9.99 at SaveMart stores in Manteca. This is $2 over prices from this same time last year. These increases have been attributed to the scarcity of watermelon coming out of one part of Mexico, and were not caused by the California drought.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">However, at least 10% of California's Central Valley farmland is expected to lie fallow this year due to a lack of available irrigation water. While California melon prices are expected to be around the same level as they were in 2013, the prices of other California crops are expected to increase, due to a lack of water or a reduction in water quality. The expectation that lower California supplies will be supplemented by production in other countries may not take into account demand and production problems abroad.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">This year, growers with high-value vineyards or orchards have changed their strategies to try to save their perennial crops, rather than maximize their production, according to the report. For many, this is the result of a <b>zero allocation</b> to farmers from the Central Valley Water Project as well as the State Water Project.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">The article specifically mentions canning tomatoes and almonds. In the case of tomatoes, which are highly sensitive to salinity levels, a reduction in available water quality is expected to reduce yields for many growers.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">The effects of the drought will undoubtedly be different for each crop and growing region. For example, in a recent article, AndNowUKnow explored the effects of the drought on predicted future supplies of avocados. Our sources pointed to increased and stable production in several areas of Central and South America, which are expected to provide adequate supplies throughout the year. Although some California avocado growers are forced to pull fruit from trees early in some cases in order to conserve water, different growing regions of California actually have very different water availabilities.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">The $10 watermelon illustrates that international production comes with its own hurdles, and as a matter of supply and demand, we should not expect international production to supplement California's supplies without also incurring a price increase.</p><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">
