TORONTO, CANADA - Each December, the time comes to switch hats and begin thinking about programs after the New Year.
There are two elements of the produce offer that come to mind when I look toward the new calendar. The first element is a reset to healthy eating. It’s no secret that the holidays relax a lot of healthy eating regimens. In fact, in my house, that relaxed attitude normally starts long before the holidays. Of course, healthy eating means different things to different people; to me, it means more fish.
The second element is a reacquaintance with organic programs. Put them together, and you might get organic lemons. And as the saying goes, ‘When life gives you organic lemons…use them to season baked fish,’ or something to that effect.
The point is, organic lemons take on a bit of a larger role in the minds of consumers in the new year, whether it be to shake off the winter blues with a fresh jug of lemonade or to liven up a healthy fish meal. For this reason, Produce Moneyball takes a shot at cracking the organic lemon code.
Regardless of which side of the organic lemon fence you fall on, you’re best served to read on. Knowing a thing or two about the future costs of these gems can only do you good.
The accompanying graph shows organic 95 count lemon volume during February and March of last year. One can see that volumes remained low during February but take off mid-March around week 10.
Notice that costs remained flat during this time and hovered around $37 FOB. This is uncharacteristically high and more stable than normal. Perhaps these costing results were just another odd quirk of the pandemic.
This year, Produce Moneyball predicts not only lower costs, thanks to an annual average deflation rate of 1.5 percent, but also because increased supply should once again allow for lower costs once March rolls around.
There you have it. Remember, if life gives you organic lemons, turn to Produce Moneyball, it might just direct you to a whole lot of organic lemonade.
Mike Mauti, Managing Partner, Execulytics Consulting
Leading the Execulytics team, Mike brings more than 20 years of experience as a leader in the fresh foods industry. Over this time, Mike has gained expertise in retail operations, procurement, and merchandising. Specific skills around grocery retailing, particularly in produce buying and selling, make Mike a valuable partner for suppliers and independent retailers alike.
