MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is now reporting that the current El Niño climate pattern building in the Pacific Ocean is on track to be one of the strongest on record, partially due to recent cyclones in the area acting as a turbocharger.
“Several tropical cyclones, including a rare July cyclone in the southern hemisphere, have resulted in a strong reversal of trade winds near the equator,” the Bureau reported this morning. “This is likely to increase temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise sea surface temperatures further in the coming months.”
As we’ve previously reported, El Niño is a warming of a certain patch of the central Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide. El Niños affect weather in different regions in different ways, and typically increases the likelihood of drought in Australia, increases rain across South America, and brings cooler summers and rain to North America. Australia, for one, has been dealing with drought condition for much of the 21st century, from 1996 to as recent as 2009.
While this is not expected to have a substanital impact on California’s drought conditions yet, any extra rain El Niño may bring could be beneficial to the state. The Australian Bureau has noted previously that it isn’t possible at this stage to determine exactly how intense this event will be, and the strength of a system doesn’t always correspond to its impact.
“All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest El Niño will persist until at least the end of 2015. Models also indicate that further warming is likely,” the Bureau continued, meaning conditions persisting into 2016 is expected.
Historically, El Niño reaches peak strength during late spring or early summer, so stay tuned as we continue to follow this strengthening weather system.
