TORONTO, CANADA - Did anyone notice the calendar? Silly question, of course you noticed the calendar. People in the produce industry live and die by the calendar. Miss an important week and you could miss the boat on booking a key seasonal item. Right now, the calendar is telling us we’re into the second quarter of the year. That means it’s corn season.
Corn is grown somewhere in North America to satisfy demand every week of the year, but during Q2, that’s April through June for the civilians in the audience, corn takes a starring role in the produce department. This short three-month window is responsible for 70 percent of the corn volume for the entire year. Suffice it to say, if you mess up corn in Q2, you ain’t makin’ it up this year!
Aside from being a great quarter for corn, Q2 also happens to be great for those who like summer long weekends. Corn makes an appearance in all the important ones, and with the focus on the barbecue, it’s not hard to understand why. Before we fire up our grill for our favorite corn on the cob recipe, we need to consult Produce Moneyball in preparation for a big season.
The accompanying graph details 48-count bi-color corn for weeks 19–26. The green-colored bars demonstrate the relative volume during these months. What is apparent is the big spike in volume during weeks 19, 20, and 21, coinciding with the May long weekends on both sides of the border, followed by smaller spikes in weeks 25 and 26 for the July long weekends.
While these celebrations are known for their pyrotechnics, Produce Moneyball is projecting a year without fireworks, predicting FOB costs to remain within a tight $2 window trading between $11 and $13, not far off from what we experienced in 2021. Take note, however, of an uncharacteristic 2020 spike to $37 FOB, which was considered an anomaly and removed from the analysis.
Remember, if the calendar says Q2, keep your ear to the ground and look to Produce Moneyball; it will provide you comfort when it’s time to bust out the corn.
Mike Mauti, Managing Partner, Execulytics Consulting
Leading the Execulytics team, Mike brings more than 20 years of experience as a leader in the fresh foods industry. Over this time, Mike has gained expertise in retail operations, procurement, and merchandising. Specific skills around grocery retailing, particularly in produce buying and selling, make Mike a valuable partner for suppliers and independent retailers alike.
