UNITED STATES – The industry is at a crossroads. We have felt it for some time. But stack a year of soaring fuel on top of rising input costs, labor challenges, and unprecedented weather, and a delicate balance erodes into a critical one. Profits are down. Acreage is down across many categories. There are far fewer growers growing. That is what our industry friends are telling us as they face an uncertain future.
With diesel prices where they are and freight rates close behind, suppliers and growers are absorbing costs their contracts never anticipated, and the industry’s largest trade show is just days away. What will the topics of conversation be?
For the week of October 5th, on-highway diesel averaged $8.08 a gallon in California, up $3.11, or 63 percent, from a year ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The West Coast averaged $7.23, up $2.73, or 61 percent. Diesel ran $6.49 in the Central Atlantic and $6.48 in New England. The national average sits at $6.20 a gallon, $2.49, or 67 percent, above where it stood a year ago. Regular gasoline averages $4.35 nationally, up $1.23, or 39 percent, from last year.
In California, where so much of the nation’s fresh product originates, AAA’s daily survey puts metro diesel averages at $8.80 in San Francisco and San Rafael as of Oct. 12, with growing regions close behind, including $8.73 in San Luis Obispo, $8.69 in Santa Cruz-Watsonville, and $8.55 in Salinas. AAA’s statewide average sits just shy of its record $8.44, set Sept. 22.
Shipping a truckload of produce from California, Oregon, or Washington to Connecticut now approaches $15,000, one supplier shared with me. A year ago, the same load ran $8,000–9,000.
A surcharge absorbed in the spring as a temporary shock has now become a norm, and every layer of the fresh produce industry should be advocating for a balance. For now, much of the cost sits on the supply side of a category that cannot raise its price on demand.
One supplier gave me an example, a real one, for wrapping my head around. Imagine signing a 12-month contract in September 2025; no one at that table could have planned for fuel at these prices, or for freight at these rates. The fix that supplier describes is not new: a fuel surcharge added to the invoice and indexed to diesel prices, as was standard practice years ago. Can it become the industry standard again?
That answer lives in the relationship. In partnership and coming together to contribute to the solution. No contract can read every tea leaf, and this year, few saw it coming.
The stakes are generational. Oregon once had more than 100 potato packing houses, that same supplier told me. Two remain. Several Northwest farming families have already accepted that the next generation will not farm. And that is not a possibility anyone takes lightly. Behind every shuttered packing house is a family that once expected the next generation to take the keys. Legacy is not a line item; it is central to our industry.
And the timing sharpens all of it. In a matter of days, buyers, growers, and suppliers will stand on the same show floor. There may be no better place to continue the conversation.
A crossroads is a choice. The industry can keep asking growers and suppliers to absorb what was never in the contract, or it can share the load or create a better solution. Either way, we need to ensure a road that leads to another harvest.
Sources
U.S. Energy Information Administration: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
AAA: California Gas Prices
