<p>Is the guacamole apocalypse upon us? Chipotle says it's a false alarm. Avocado growers emphatically agree.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">Last week, climate change news outlet thinkprogress.org ran a story about Chipotle, based on one of its SEC filings. The story was entitled, <i>Chipotle Warns It Might Stop Serving Guacamole if Climate Change Gets Worse</i>. However, it turns out that the company filed financial documents wherein it disclosed climate change as one potential risk which might affect its bottom line in the future.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">“Increasing weather volatility or other long-term changes in global weather patterns, including any changes associated with global climate change, <b>could</b> have a significant impact on the price or availability of some of our ingredients,” the SEC filing said. “In the event of cost increases with respect to one or more of our raw ingredients we may choose to temporarily suspend serving menu items, such as guacamole or one or more of our salsas, rather than paying the increased cost for the ingredients.”<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">In fact, Chipotle doesn't think that's a likely scenario and neither do growers. The only current situation facing avocado production that is being blamed on climate change is the California drought. However, this will not result in a shortage.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">An avocado grower familiar with the issue tells AndNowUKnow, "There is not going to be a shortage of avocados and let me tell you why: Because it isn't just a California deal any more. Yes, California's crop this year is down, but its only down to closer to what is an average avocado season. The last two years have been off the charts. 600 million and 500 million back to back...A normal crop is about 300-320 million. And avocados cycle, like a lot of commodities do. These trees are tired. So everybody knew this was going to happen. Next year we'll probably see probably closer to 400 million again. Every other year produces a big year."<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">The grower went on to say that the Peruvian avocado season will supplement these lower volumes by paralleling California in timing. While California will probably peak in June, July and August, Peru starts at the end of April and will peak in May, June, July and probably half way into August. Last year, Peru harvested an average of about 3-3.5 million pounds per week. This year, the country is expected to harvest about 7.5-8 million pounds per week.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">Also, Mexico never really stops producing. They will go from about 30 million pounds per week, which is what they're doing now, down to about 12-15 million after about June.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">Between Mexico, California, and Peru, there will easily be 30 million pounds per week available. In the first week of June, we could potentially see 40 million pounds per week.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">According to Fox News, Chipotle uses an average of about 97,000 pounds of avocados every day. That's a lot, but certainly not enough to worry about any kind of shortage in the US.</p><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">
