<p> It goes without saying that it’s been a tough year so far for Central Valley growers dealing with the severe California drought. Now, it’s expected that the drought is expected to cost the industry <B>$1.7 billion</b> and cause more than <B>14,500 workers to lose their jobs</b>, according to preliminary results of a new study by the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"> The preliminary analysis represents the first socio-economic forecast of this year’s drought, said lead author Richard Howitt, a UC Davis professor emeritus of agricultural and resource economics.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"> “We wanted to provide a foundation for state agricultural and water policymakers to understand the impacts of the drought on farmers and farm communities,” said Howitt.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"> To compile the analysis, UC Davis researchers used computer models and the latest estimates of State Water Project, federal Central Valley Project, and local water deliveries and groundwater pumping capabilities to estimate the economic effects of this year’s drought. Researchers estimated that <B>Central Valley irrigators would receive only two-thirds of their normal river water deliveries</b> this year because of the drought. Other points in the report include:<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">• Reduced surface water deliveries of <B>6.5 million acre-feet of water</b>, or 32.5 percent of normal water use by Central Valley growers.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">• Fallowing of an additional <B>410,000 acres</b>, representing 6 percent of irrigated cropland in the Central Valley.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">• About <B>60 percent</b> of the economic losses will occur in the San Joaquin Valley and Tulare Lake Basin.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">• Additional ground water pumping will cost an estimated <B>$450 million</b> and still leave a shortage of 1.5 million acre-feet of irrigation water, about 7.5 percent of normal irrigation water use in the Central Valley.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">Co-author Jay Lund, Director of the Center for Watershed Sciences and a UC Davis professor of civil and environmental engineering, states that growers are “expected to replace much of the loss in project water deliveries with ground water, California’s largest source of water storage during drought years.”<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">In response, California Citrus Mutual President Joel Nelsen said that while the report represents an “accurate picture of the reality” by indicating losses incurred to-date, <B>it cannot predict future impacts as permanent crops are removed from production</b>.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">“If there is a flaw in the report it is the assumption that ground water supplies are available to offset surface water loss, which may be true in some production areas but certainly not all,” said Nelsen, noting that impacts to the Friant service area have not yet been calculated into the report.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">Without a doubt, this is a huge blow to Central Valley farmers, and ultimately, it may be some time before we see the final impacts this drought will have.<hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">Stay tuned to AndNowUKnow as we continue our coverage on the impacts of the California drought.</p><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><p><a class="btn btn-sm btn-primary col-lg-12" style="white-space: normal;" href=" https://watershed.ucdavis.edu" target="_new"> UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences </a></p><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding"><p><a class="btn btn-sm btn-primary col-lg-12" style="white-space: normal;" href=" http://www.cacitrusmutual.com/" target="_new"> California Citrus Mutual </a></p><hr class="legacyRuler"><hr class="invisible minimal-padding">
