OXNARD, CA - The industry is buzzing as the U.S. mango market teases the possibility of tighter volumes on the horizon. Volumes currently remain aligned with the same point as last year, according to Freska Produce International, though expectations across the trade continue to point toward a potentially tighter market as the summer months progress.

As Mexico carries the majority of the U.S. supply through September and questions remain about upcoming production out of Sinaloa, I checked in with Managing Partner Gary Clevenger to see where things stand and what the potential influences are.

“Overall, the tone of the mango market remains extremely positive. Demand continues to outpace available supply, and many in the industry believe the market could strengthen further as summer progresses,” Gary tells me.

Tight supplies, healthy retail movement, and lighter-than-projected Mexican production have come together to create what the produce veteran called one of the strongest summer mango markets seen in several seasons.

The estimates out of Mexico, specifically Sinaloa, are long developing, with the region having shared the possibility of lower mango volumes due to earlier weather-related conditions throughout several growing regions. Despite the concerns, Gary says overall shipment numbers out of Mexico have not significantly dwindled. In fact, total year-to-date volume currently remains very much in line with last year’s pace.

“There continues to be considerable industry discussion surrounding potentially lighter numbers coming out of Sinaloa, which traditionally helps stabilize summer mango supply, especially on red varieties and larger counts. Current reports continue to point toward lighter production, lower fruit set, and uncertainty regarding how long the season may run, but as the season approaches, the industry will ultimately have to wait and see how the crop truly develops,” Gary explains.

Logistics and freight costs also continue to support elevated delivered pricing. Higher reefer costs, increased production expenses, and tighter transportation availability continue placing upward pressure on the market. Regardless, Gary says demand remains very strong and the market continues to maintain a positive tone moving into the summer months.

“Retail demand throughout the United States remains extremely strong. Mangos continue to be one of the fastest-growing tropical fruit categories at retail, and aggressive summer promotions are helping maintain strong movement despite elevated pricing,” he comments.

With sizing having become a major market driver, Gary shares that retail-friendly smaller sizes continue to remain tight, while buyers actively compete for promotable fruit. Larger fruit remains more available, but overall supplies are significantly more balanced than in prior years.

Current shipment data, according to Freska, shows Mexico shipping around 3.5 million boxes of mangos of late, with total season volume now at approximately 37 million boxes, supporting an overall outlook for movement similar to the same time last year.

As discussions evolve into data and the season progresses, we will be sure to report the latest updates.