NORTH AMERICA - For fresh produce, El Niño doesn't have a single impact. The effects are many. As weather patterns shift, geography, crop, timing, and intensity of precipitation can turn one climate pattern into excessive water for one grower and too little for another. The only promise: it will be felt widely. Keeping the lines of communication open between buyers and suppliers will be essential when planning promotions, campaigns, and holidays. A good partnership, after all, can weather any storm.
And this El Niño is one to watch. NOAA currently puts the chance of El Niño becoming very strong this fall and winter at greater than 90 percent, with a 75 percent chance during October–December of reaching a historic threshold that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950. But there is caution to apply: Even at that magnitude, NOAA insists that typical El Niño impacts become more likely, but are not guaranteed.
To get a general outlook of what the U.S. may have on its El Niño radar, let's start in California. NOAA explains that El Niño alters the jet stream and tends to bring cooler, wetter winter conditions across the southern tier of the United States, including parts of California. That creates the potential for a more active southern storm track. The rub: More water can benefit wells and reservoirs, but excessive rain can also mean saturated fields, flooding, harvest interruptions, planting delays, and added quality or disease pressure.
“A wetter winter could be beneficial for California avocado growers by improving soil moisture and water supplies heading into the growing season,” Ken Melban, President of the California Avocado Commission, shares with me. “At the same time, El Niño doesn’t guarantee above-average rainfall, and the timing and intensity of storms will be important.”
Ken expands on those conditions, adding that California avocado growers are accustomed to dealing with considerable variability in weather from year to year. Heavy or prolonged rain can create challenges with drainage, erosion, and grove access, particularly in hillside growing areas.
“Ultimately, growers will be watching not just how much rain we receive due to El Niño, but also when and how it falls, as that will determine the impact on the state’s groves,” Ken describes.
Move north to the Pacific Northwest, and the weather pattern shifts. USDA’s Northwest Climate Hub says El Niño typically brings warmer, drier fall and winter conditions to Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Here, snowpack becomes particularly important. Warmer, drier winters can mean less precipitation overall and more of what does fall arriving as rain rather than snow, potentially decreasing runoff and summer water availability.
Brianna Shales, Marketing Director at Stemilt, offers some context from last year and a bridge into the current season, highlighting possible outcomes to keep an eye on. Washington experienced a low-snowpack winter last year that led to diminished water supplies and drought conditions, especially in southern growing areas of the state where water is already constrained, she begins.
“The other El Niño effect was earlier harvest timing, and that happened this year across West Coast crops, including our apples, pears, and cherries,” Brianna explains. “Overall growing conditions have been favorable for these fruits as we did not experience extreme heat this summer, leading to great color and flavor development. As we look forward to the 2027 crop, snow is important for snowpack and water storage. We generally have no issues meeting chill requirements for cherries in Washington. There could also be concerns where bloom occurs early, leading to spring frost vulnerability. We saw both frost and hail as spring issues this year, which reduced the apple crop in some areas.”
Brianna knows weather is something we can't control, and growers will have to adapt to what Mother Nature gives them.
“However, Washington State still has great irrigation and reservoir networks, clean water sources like the Columbia River, and great soil and arid climate conditions that help us routinely produce high-quality fruit. We remain optimistic that we'll be able to work with Mother Nature to do that in an El Niño year!”
Move the lens down to Arizona and the Desert Southwest, and timing takes on a different significance. Winter vegetable production makes the possibility of rain during critical planting or harvest windows particularly important. NOAA notes that the southern tier of the United States tends to experience wetter-than-average conditions during El Niño winters, although these typical effects are not guaranteed in any individual season. In a region so important to winter vegetable supply, the timing of any significant weather will be something to watch closely.
The reach of this 2026–2027 El Niño extends into the Southeast as well, increasing the odds of above-average precipitation across the southern states. USDA’s Southeast Climate Hub says El Niño enhances the subtropical jet stream and is associated with wetter conditions across the South. In its separate overview of Southeastern croplands, the Climate Hub notes that changes in when and how much rain falls can affect crop production. How will these unfold? That is the question.
“While there's been plenty of attention paid to the ‘super El Niño’, we're cautious about drawing conclusions too far in advance. The reality is that no two seasons are ever the same. What we can say is that planting conditions have been favorable to this point, and the absence of hurricane activity has been welcomed. We're also entering the season with great varieties that have shown strong field performance, particularly under challenging weather conditions. Our focus remains on managing what we can control and adapting as conditions evolve throughout the season,” Nick Wishnatzki, Public Relations Director at Wish Farms, explains.
What we are watching now is just how far the pendulum will swing in either direction. Growers have been preparing and are doing what they can to mitigate the impacts, but managing expectations across industry services, operations, and support systems will be essential. Once again, resilience may prove to be one of the greatest strengths of this amazing industry.
